MOST ENTERTAINING LATEST POLLS:  We've cautioned often that polls are just snapshots in time, and, a year and a half before a presidential election, they're really more entertainment than news.  But they are such fun.  So, herewith, my choice for the most fun poll in the last few weeks.  Good stuff to chew on.  From Issues and Insights: 

If you’re wondering who Republican voters want to see square off in next year’s presidential primaries, it’s probably no big secret. As the latest polling data from I&I/TIPP show, a solid majority of registered GOP voters and independents who lean Republican, or Republican primary voters, say they want to see former President Donald Trump and current Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis duke it out on the primary trail.

In the latest poll, taken of 1,155 registered voters from Feb. 1-3, 397 were identified as GOP primary voters. They were asked to respond to the following statement: “I would like to see a primary contest between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.” They were given a choice to “agree strongly,” “agree somewhat,” “disagree somewhat,” “disagree strongly,” and “not sure.”

The margin of error for the sub-sample is +/-5 percentage points.

The answer that came back: an emphatic “yes.” By 61% to 23%, voters said they’d like to see DeSantis and Trump joust in the campaign, with 26% saying they agree “strongly” while 35% saying they agree “somewhat” strongly.

Republicans were slightly more keen than independents (56%) to see the two heavyweights face off, which perhaps is not so surprising. Both have made big headlines in recent months that have fired up their followers.

Some intriguing differences emerged among a few demographic groups.
For instance, men overwhelmingly (70%) wanted to see a Trump-DeSantis battle, as compared to just 55% of women.

Meanwhile, minority voters and white voters showed a big gap: Just 59% of white voters want to see the Trump-DeSantis battle, versus an overwhelming 94% of black voters and 72% of Hispanic voters.

Equally interesting, among those who self-describe as “conservative,” only 60% said they wanted to see that battle of the GOP titans, compared to 61% of moderates and 77% of liberals.

Why the big differences? Years of polling and unrelentingly negative media coverage show there is not much love for Trump in either the official Democratic Party, the “Never-Trump” circles of the Republican Party or the media.

Even so, his support has been strong at the grassroots level, and his hands-on, Everyman approach to campaigning has clearly struck a chord with minority voters, including some Democrats.

That is the most important thing to come out of this poll.

TIPP’s own polling on how the 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls are doing shows how the race currently stacks up.

We asked GOP primary voters, “If the Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support for the nomination?”

At this very early stage in the game, one candidate has established a clear lead: Trump.

Half of respondents said they would support Trump, compared to 27% who would support DeSantis.

No other major candidate — not Nikki Haley (1%), not former Vice President Mike Pence (7%), not former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (2%), not former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (0%) — even broke into double digits. Just 2% answered “someone else,” while 9% said “not sure.”

COMMENT:  There's more to the poll.  Read on.  I'm fascinated by the comments about minority voters, and also fascinated by the continuing loyalty of the Trump voters.  

At the same time, it is clear that DeSantis has done a masterful job of making himself into a national figure in a very short period of time.  Name recognition is critical in politics, and he has it because he's earned it.   He's earned many things.  Good things.  Watch him.

February 26, 2023